Bitcoin’s ongoing bear market has been ’rather comforting,’ analyst says

Bitcoin has retested its recent lows near $60,000 before staging a modest bounce to around $63,000, with the cryptocurrency falling roughly 54% from its cycle peak of about $125,000 reached in November 2025.

analysts led by Chhugani said this drawdown has been notably shallower than prior cycles, which saw corrections of 75% to 90%. "Although it is unclear if we are completely out of the woods... this crypto bear market has been milder than the previous drawdown," the analysts wrote.

Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs have brought in $10 billion in 2026, compared with $60 billion last year. Bitcoin ETFs alone have shed $5.5 billion this year against a $74 billion asset base, with buying from corporate treasury holders, chiefly , offsetting the outflows.

itself has weathered volatility in its STRC preferred shares, now trading at $87.87 against a $100 face value. The company maintains 17 months of cash reserves to cover dividend and interest obligations, with debt representing just 13% of its Bitcoin collateral value.

"It looks unlikely any major Bitcoin forced supply could come from Strategy and it continues to be a net buyer in the market," the analysts said.

Meanwhile, U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners have become net sellers as they pivot toward AI data center operations, ceding hash rate share to international miners in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Latin America. U.S. miners’ share of global hash rate has dropped over 40 basis points in the past two quarters.

On the regulatory front, highlighted continued rulemaking under the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and the rollout of crypto perpetual futures on U.S., with the CLARITY Act’s passage still seen as a coin-flip this year.

In sum, "any crypto correction is painful, but this one has been rather comforting," the analysts said. "Crypto feels like it’s growing up."

remains long-term bullish but acknowledged its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target "appears ambitious in context of the market correction," while still expecting the broader cycle to eventually turn.